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Typically, the National Football League's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple pattern. It commonly acts as a type of apology. We regret we misjudged your squad in our pre-campaign projections.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who oversaw the largest improvement is handed the award. In reality, it fuels an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring superior leadership or simply the most shocking surprise.

Yet the latest competition is profoundly different. The list of contenders is remarkably deep. It has been the year of resurgences. The NFL has been messy, with recent conference champions fading and longtime also-rans ascending together. Under an ordinary year, a coach leading the his team to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in such a wild and entertaining year, he's facing several other outstanding candidates.

This is how the ideal vote could look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by quarterbacks. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. In the right ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to display his special talent. Since midseason onward, the Bears rank number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's prolonged performance. Under Johnson, Williams has become increasingly decisive, far less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme rather than improvising. It is an offense built solely in the coach's image: a physical ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action and a creative passing attack that creates wide receiver targets consistently. Williams has taken advantage. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been able to conjure big plays from nothing.

Johnson came to Chicago with a clear offensive vision. Almost every gamble – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, transforming Williams into a rhythm thrower – has worked. This is uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who entered the building with the kind of expectations Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top candidate on the head coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no guarantees. Somehow, he has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme wizard but the kind of leader that can inject new life into an franchise.

During a normal year, Johnson would be the overwhelming choice. Yet the current is not a normal campaign!

The area where his case runs slightly into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense presently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can focus on creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. With a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be two wins worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is established for long-term winning. However he falls short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has orchestrated a swift resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now ranks number five in the league in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, he has excelled at the leadership stuff, which wasn't a given after his early public appearances and some of his offseason moves.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed their staff with the ideal staff cocktail of youth and experience, Coen trusted newbies. Starting with the head coach on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That kind of setup is intriguing on paper, but frequently collapses in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a their job on the fly. Yet he has pulled everyone and everything together.

After an early hot beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the track. A mid-year setback had the Jags stumbling again. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. He didn't. Rather, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped chasing explosive plays and started seeking reliable ones. The coach refocused the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 seed. Coen receives the slightest knock in the rankings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year argument has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a different signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. Through the middle point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has regressed since that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, placing him just a single place ahead of other QBs.

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